nirholas / market-sentiment

Market Sentiment Analysis

When to use this skill

Use when the user asks about:

• Is now a good time to buy or sell?
• What is current market sentiment?
• Is the market fearful or greedy?
• What are whales doing right now?
• Is there a narrative shift happening?
• What signals are flashing in the market today?

Data Sources

All endpoints free, no authentication required.

Sentiment Framework

1. Fear & Greed Index Interpretation

Fetch from /api/fear-greed. Interpret the score:

Trend matters more than the current number: A rising score from 20→40 is more bullish than a flat score at 55. Note the 7d and 30d direction.

2. Narrative Sentiment Layer

Fetch from /api/narratives:

• Dominant narrative: What single theme is receiving the most coverage?
• Narrative sentiment: Are the top narratives bullish, bearish, or mixed?
• Emerging narratives: Topics gaining momentum — early signals of the next rotation
• Fading narratives: Topics losing steam — potential exit signals for related assets

Narrative lifecycle: New → Growing → Peak → Declining → Dead

When a narrative is at Peak coverage, the easy money is often already gone.

3. Trending Coins Signal

Fetch from /api/trending:

• Positive attention: Coins trending due to upgrades, adoption, or positive fundamentals
• Negative attention: Coins trending due to hacks, controversy, or regulatory issues
• Sector clustering: Are trending coins from the same sector? (signals rotation)
• Volume vs narrative: Is price action confirming the news attention?

Divergence signal: A coin trending heavily in news but not moving in price often precedes a large move.

4. Whale Activity Analysis

Fetch from /api/whales:

• Exchange inflows: Large wallets sending to exchanges = potential sell pressure
• Exchange outflows: Large wallets withdrawing from exchanges = accumulation
• Smart money wallets: Are wallets with a track record of early entry accumulating?
• Concentration changes: Is supply becoming more or less concentrated?

Interpretation guide:

• Sustained exchange outflows + flat price = coiled spring (bullish)
• Sustained exchange inflows + rising price = distribution phase (caution)

5. Trading Signals

Fetch from /api/signals:

• Review active buy/sell signals with confidence scores
• Note consensus vs divergence across signals — agreement = higher confidence
• Check signal age: signals older than 24h have diminishing relevance
• Check which coins have the most signals firing simultaneously

6. Full Intelligence Synthesis

Fetch from /api/ai/agent?format=summary for a pre-synthesized summary:

• regime: accumulation / markup / distribution / markdown / ranging
• fearGreedIndex: current number
• volatilityRegime: low / medium / high
• dominantNarrative: leading market theme

Use this as a quick calibration, then apply your own judgment from the individual signal layers.

7. Contrarian Framework

Extreme readings are often the most actionable:

• When Fear & Greed > 85 AND social volume is spiking: trim exposure, not a buy signal
• When Fear & Greed < 20 AND whale outflows are positive: high conviction accumulation zone
• When narratives are uniformly bullish across all categories: healthy skepticism warranted
• When nobody is talking about a sector: potential early entry opportunity

The crowd is right in the middle of a trend, and wrong at the extremes.

8. Output Format

Market Sentiment Snapshot — [Date]

Fear & Greed: [score] — [label] — [trend: ↑/↓/→]

Market Regime: [accumulation / markup / distribution / markdown / ranging]

Narrative Signal:

• Dominant: [narrative name] — [bullish/bearish/neutral]
• Rising: [narrative] — gaining momentum
• Fading: [narrative] — losing steam

Whale Activity: [Accumulating / Neutral / Distributing] — [supporting data point]

Key Signals: [top 2-3 signals firing, with direction]

Contrarian Take: [what the crowd might be getting wrong]

Actionable Read: [one clear, specific takeaway suited to the user's stated goals]

Confidence: High / Medium / Low — [based on signal agreement across layers]

Notes for Agent Use

• Combine with crypto-news-briefing skill for a complete market picture
• For real-time monitoring, poll /api/fear-greed every hour
• The /api/ai/agent endpoint synthesizes multiple signals — use for quick reads
• Historical sentiment data available via the archive for backtesting context