govctl-org / decision-analysis
Stress-test consequential design options with premortem and backcast reasoning, then return a risk-calibrated recommendation to the owning governance workflow
Decision Analysis
Surface assumptions, failure paths, and deciding evidence before a
consequential design choice is recorded. discuss and adr-writer use this
skill. It only analyzes: no artifacts, lifecycle changes, code, Work Items, or
VCS operations.
When To Use
Go deep when trade-offs are non-obvious, the choice is expensive to reverse, or
a wrong assumption risks normative, compatibility, data, security, or
operational damage. Use a short comparison for reversible, well-understood
choices. Skip it when a normative RFC already decides the answer or the choice
has no durable consequence.
Hard Stops
Invented scenarios, unsupported probabilities, and model confidence are not
evidence.Do not recommend behavior that conflicts with a normative RFC or make an ADR
the source of new obligations.- Run no implementation experiment before the lifecycle allows implementation.
Ask when an unknown could reverse the ranking or cross an authority boundary;
state smaller assumptions explicitly.
Method
Frame. Name the decision, real options (status quo only if viable),
constraints, success criteria, horizon, and evidence. Separate facts from
assumptions and note what evidence would change the ranking.Premortem. For each option, imagine a concrete failure. Name the few
material causes, early signals, impact, and prevention. Consider
specification drift, hidden coupling, migration or data loss, verification
blind spots, operational burden, and governance cost where relevant.Backcast. Imagine it succeeding and work back to the prerequisites,
actions, dependencies, and signals that made it work, to test for a credible
path.Recommend. Rank by constraints, downside, reversibility, evidence
quality, cost of learning, and prerequisites. Use numbers only when data
supports them.
Return Go, No-Go, or Conditional Go with the preferred option and why,
conditions that must hold, pivot triggers, and the smallest lifecycle-valid
step that reduces the biggest uncertainty, such as a sketch or isolated
prototype outside governed behavior. Match depth to risk.
Where Results Go
| Output | Destination |
|---|---|
| Observable obligations, compatibility, validation | RFC |
| Context, alternatives, chosen direction, consequences | ADR |
| Approved scope, acceptance evidence, mitigation work | Work Item |
| Stable, repeatable executable checks | Verification Guard |
| Assumptions, scenario detail, temporary evidence | Discussion record or final response |
Put only durable rationale in the ADR, shaped by adr-writer; never paste the
full analysis or checklists into its decision. A pivot that could change the
decision or a requirement returns to discuss and the owning artifact before
execution resumes.